Hanoi Population Structure Changes in the Process of Modernization and Industrialization

It has been two years since the decision officiating Hanoi expansion came into effect January 8, 2008. The Hanoi’s administrative boundaries have been expanded since the city was merged with the entire natural area and population of Hatay Province alongside the adjustments to those of Melinh District (Vinh Phuc Province) and 04 other communes: Dong Xuan, Tien Xuan, Yen Binh, Yen Trung (Luong Son district, Hoa Binh Province). By August 2008, Hanoi covered an area of 3,324.92 km² with the population of 6 million people, spanning 29 district-level administrative units and 575 commune-level ones. Hanoi borders Bac Ninh, Hung Yen provinces in the east, Hoa Binh, Phu Tho in the west; Thai Nguyen and Vinh Phuc in the north.

The expansion of Hanoi has brought many changes, particularly in its population. This paper discusses some specific features of Hanoi’s population in the process of modernization and industrialization based on the data of Vietnam 2009 Population and Housing Census. Besides, the data of Vietnam 1999 Population and Housing Census are also accessed to compare the population features of former Hanoi city with those of former Hatay province (now expanded Hanoi capital).

1. Hanoi’s population growth rate

Statistics have shown that Hanoi’s population has been growing rapidly in the past 50 years. In 1954, Hanoi covered an area of 152 km² with a population of 53,000. In 1961, the city was expanded to 584 km² with a population of 91,000. In 1978, the National Assembly decided on the 2^nd expansion of Hanoi, increasing the city’s area to 2,136 km² with a population of 2.5 million. In 1991, Hanoi was downsized to 924 km² with a population of 2 million. In the 1990s, along with the urbanization of Hanoi’s suburban areas, Hanoi population increased steadily to 2,675,116 in 1999. Since the most recent expansion on the August 1^st, 2008, Hanoi has been inhabited by 6,233 million people and has become one of the 17 largest capitals in the world.

According to the General Statistics Office, the average national population growth rate in the period 1999 – 2009 was 1.2% per year. According to the Population and Housing Census conducted on April 1, 2009, the current population of Hanoi was about 6,541,909 and its annual population growth rate averaged 2% in the period 1999-2009. This rate is 2.2 times as high as that of the Red River Delta and 1.66 times higher than the national average.

Migration to Hanoi is considered one of the causes of Hanoi’s higher population growth rate than that of the national average. According to a survey on migration , by May 2005, the number of inhabitants categorized as KT3 and KT4 accounted for 9.5% Hanoi’s total population. The number of migrants to Hanoi in the period 1994-1999 was approximately 196,930, most of which came from the Hatay – the province with the biggest number of migrants to Hanoi (according to the National Assembly’s Committee for Social Affairs, 2005). The number of incoming inhabitants and outgoing inhabitants in 2008 was 34,768 and 21,981 respectively. The net migration rate was 3.9% (the Central Population and Housing Census Steering Committee, 2009). Hanoi received 100,000 new-born babies and 100,000 immigrants each year in 2001 – 2009. Thus, Hanoi’s population is expected to increase by about 200,000 annually, the size of a big district. The population growth rate is highest in Ha Dong, Tu Liem and Cau Giay districts, where a large number of workers and students from other provinces are residing. Especially, Tu Liem’s population has doubled since 1999 to around 371,247.

Urbanization and the rural-to-urban migration are common in developing countries, where the population grow much faster than their production. As a result, these countries confront alarming unemployment rate. Cities and provinces that receive the largest number of incoming migrants are Binh Duong, Ho Chi Minh, Da Nang and Hanoi. The population growth rate in central cities and provinces has also been taken into consideration by the General Statistics Office.

2. Hanoi’s population structure in terms of gender, rural/urban areas

2.1. Gender structure

Sex ratio of the population is defined as the number of males per 100 females. Vietnam’s sex ratio has always been under 100 since 1960, mainly due to the severe impacts of war and higher male mortality rate.

However, sex ratio has steadily increased since 1979. This is partly because of diminishing war impacts and recent improved sex ratio by birth.

Vietnam’s sex ratio reached 96.7 males per 100 females according to the 1999 Population Census. According to the preliminary data of the 2009 Population and Housing Census, the sex ratio increased to 98.1 males per 100 females. Comparing to the national average , Hanoi’s sex ratio is 0.11 % lower. ( table 1).

Table 1. Population Growth Rate, Sex Ratio in 1999 and 2009

(Source: General Statistics Office, Vietnam 2009 Population and Housing Census)

In 2009, females account for 50.02% of the population (3,272,735/6,541,909) which was slightly lower than 1999 (50.66%). The sex ratios in the population structure of Hanoi and Hatay in 1999 are presented in the following table:

Table 2: Population Structure in Hanoi and Hatay by gender, 1999

(Source: Vietnam 1999 Population and Housing Census)

There was a slight difference between the sex ratios in the population structure of Hanoi and Hatay. While males in Hanoi outnumbered those of Hatay by 1.34 %, females in Hatay outnumbered those of Hanoi by 0.34%.

In 2009, 59.2% of Hanoi’s population is in rural areas while the other 40.8% inhabited urban areas. Hanoi’s urban population rate (40.8%) was higher than the nationwide average by 11.2% (29.6%) and that of Red River Delta by 11.6%. Comparing with last year’s urbanization rate, Hanoi is 6.6% higher.

In the last 10 years, sex ratio by rural/urban areas has showed almost no change. It is noticeable, however, female proportion decreases (from 50.95% to 50.63%) and male proportion increases (from 49.05% to 49.37%) in rural population structure in 1999 - 2009. At the same time, urban population structure shows an opposite trend: male proportion decreases (from 49.89% to 48.78%), female proportion increases (50.11% to 51.22%) (Table 3)

Table 3: Sex ratio by rural and urban areas (people) in 1999 and 2009

(Source: Vietnam Population and Housing Census in 1999 and 2009 )

Particularly, sex ratio by birth in Hanoi has shown increasing imbalance, currently standing at 108 boys per 100 girls. Although this ratio is a bit lower than that in Red River Delta, where gender imbalance by birth is the highest in Vietnam (115.3) as compared to the nationwide average ratio (110.5 boys for 100 girls), it poses a risk of sex imbalance in Hanoi.

Hence, it is essential to introduce a more proper family planning policy for a sustainable gender balance in the future.

2.2. Population density

In 2009, the population density of Hanoi stood at 1,296 inhabitants/km², which is 7.33 times as high as the nationwide average (259 inhabitants/km²) and 2.07 times as compared to that of the Red River Delta (Table 4)

Table 4: Hanoi’s population density in comparison with

Red River Delta and the nationwide density, 2009.

(Source: Vietnam Population and Housing Census in 1999 and 2009 )

As regards population density, Hanoi ranks the second after Ho Chi Minh City (3,399 inhabitants/km²). Over the past 100 years, Hanoi’s population density has increased by 1.48 times against 1.41 times in Ho Chi Minh City (2,410 inhabitants/km² in 1999 to inhabitants/km² in 2009). This results in ever-increasing population density in Hanoi which should have been more pressing had it not been for the expansion of the capital.

However, the merger has resulted in uneven distribution of Hanoi’s population. While the average population density is 1,926 inhabitants/km², in Dong Da District it is as high as 36,550 inhabitants/km² (20 times as high as the average density). Hai Ba Trung District has the density of 29,368 inhabitants/km² while districts such as My Duc and Ba Vi the density come around 745 and 576 inhabitants/km² respectively.

In our opinion, Hanoi’s population density keeps increasing, and as regards the current migration, Hanoi is one of the cities with positive migration ratio (incoming migrants outnumber outgoing ones): 50 migrants per 1,000 people.

In other words, 1 out of 20 people in Hanoi is an immigrant (1/20), which is low compared to that of Binh Duong (1/3) and Ho Chi Minh City (1/8). However, Hanoi ranks 6^th among 63 cities and provinces in Vietnam with respect to the number of incoming migrants right behind Binh Duong (340 migrants per 1,000 inhabitants), Ho Chi Minh (136 migrants per 1,000 inhabitants), Da Nang (migrants per 1,000 inhabitants), Dong Nai (migrants per 1,000 inhabitants) and Dac Nong (migrants per 1,000 inhabitants).

The trend “narrow land, burgeoning population” keeps growing in the next few years, when the rural-to-urban migration stream continues. In addition to the labor migration, it is necessary to consider the education migration, resulting from increasing number of students who choose to study in prestigious schools, universities in Hanoi. At present, there are 126 education institutions, of which 56 are universities (accounting for 37% of total 150 universities in Vietnam), 28 junior colleges (of 226 nationwide) and 39 technical and vocational schools (of 81 nationwide).

The number of students in Hanoi is around 800,000 students, accounting for 46% of the total number (1,719,499) in Vietnam. Hanoi is also the location of many major universities: Vietnam National University, Hanoi National Economics University, Hanoi University of Technology or Hanoi University of Agriculture 1, leading universities for certain majors such as: Hanoi University of Education, University of Medicine, Vietnam National Academy of Music, Water Resources (Phan Duong, 2009)

Few graduates want to return to their hometowns, resulting in higher population density in Hanoi. Mechanical population growth is exerting more pressures on Hanoi. Infrastructure, social security, and employment fail to meet the demands of growing population. This is posing a high challenge for Hanoi. It is imperative to improve social security system, build more hospitals, clinics, schools and transportation networks to meet the people’s ever-increasing demands in the development process.

3. Education and qualifications

According to the 2009 figures, 116,736 people (2% of the total population) above 15 years of age have never been to school. Of that number females make up 75,5%, 3 times as high as males (24.5%).

Table 5: Proportion of Hanoi’s population (above 15 years of age) by education level, 2009 (%)

(Source: Vietnam Population and Housing Census in 1999 and 2009 )

Figures in table 5 show great progress has been made to help people in Hanoi to access adequate education. In 1999, 4% of the population in Hanoi aged 15 and above did not go to school (6.75% in Hatay). 10 years later, this number has been reduced to 2% in expanded Hanoi.

However, education level remain a matter of concern in Hanoi. 21% of the population have primary education, 28% have lower secondary education and only 22.2% finish upper secondary schools. Even when 27% of the population aged 15 and above with professional qualifications is added, the number of people finishing upper secondary education accounts for almost 50%. Therefore, half of the population in Hanoi (aged 15 and above) do not have access to upper secondary education, not mentioning the fact that number of illiterate people in Hanoi has increased after the expansion of administrative area. According to the Ministry of Education and Training, by June 2008, Hanoi had the highest number of illiterate people, numbering nearly 235,000 people. Of course, the former Hatay had more than 220,000 illiterates (93.6% of the total).

Table 6: Hanoi’s population structure (above 15 years of age) by

professional/technical qualifications (%)

(Source: Vietnam Population and Housing Census 1999, 2009 )

The above figures show that about 27% of the population aged 15 and above in Hanoi has received technical and professional training in different levels, of which 15.8% have junior college or university education. In other words, out of 100 15-year-old people, 16 have junior college, university and higher education. This is a huge and precious human resource (four times higher the nationwide average). However, this also reflects the imbalance in population by qualifications when there are more “professors” (16% graduates or post graduates) than “skilled workers” (11% technical/vocational school graduates).

Although the percentage of population aged 15 and above in Hanoi with higher professional qualifications is 2 times higher than the nationwide average (13.3%) and 1.3 times higher than that in Red River Delta (19.4%), this figure is still considered low, particularly in rural areas of Hanoi. This is a major obstacle to the demand for high-quality labour force in the process of industrialization and agriculture modernization.

Table 7: Qualifications of Hanoi’s population aged 15 above by rural/urban areas, 2009

(Source: Vietnam Population and Housing Census in 1999 and 2009 )

Figures in table 7 show that there a big difference in professional qualifications by rural/urban areas. 85.7% of Hanoi’s rural population aged 15 and above have not been trained professionally, the rate for urban areas is 55.4%, 2.14 times lower than that in rural areas. Only 2.1% of rural population in Hanoi have junior college qualifications compared to 3.1% of urban population.

Although graduates and post graduates account for 13.28 % of Hanoi’s population aged 15 and above against nationwide average of 23.41%. This means 1 of 4 university graduates lives in Hanoi (660,219/2,819,396)

The distribution of graduates and post graduates is quite evident by locations. Although the rural areas of Hanoi occupy only 4.07% of graduates and post graduates (2.6 times higher than the nationwide rate), the rate is 26.1 times lower than that in urban areas of Hanoi. In other words, Hanoi’s urban areas have higher percentage of graduates and post-graduates (about 6.5 times) than that in rural areas.

Professional/technical qualifications are polarized in rural and urban areas in Hanoi. One of the contributing factors is Hanoi’s expansion of administrative areas in 2008. Figures before the merger of Hanoi with Hatay clearly indicate the difference.

1999 Population and Housing Census shows professional qualifications in Hanoi and Hatay (before the merger) in Chart 8:

Chart 8: Population aged 15 and above and qualifications (1999)

(Source: Vietnam Population and Housing Census in 1999 and 2009 )

Accordingly, 17% of Hanoi’s population have primary education against 27.5% of Hatay. 1/3 of Hanoi population have lower secondary education against 2/5 that of Hatay. The proportion of the population with higher qualifications, especially tertiary education of Hanoi is much higher than that of Hatay.

Although these data date back in 10 years ago, they offer an overview of the imbalances in Hanoi’s human resource quality today with sharp distinction between former Hanoi and former Hatay. Education level - an indicator of Human Development Index (HDI) - justifies Hanoi’s HDI of 0.798 in 2001 (2^nd among 61 provinces/cities) while that in Hatay’s HDI of 0.669 (25^th among 61 provinces/cities). The difference between Hanoi HDI and Hatay HDI presents a high challenge to the quality of human resources of contemporary Hanoi, particularly in suburban districts in former Hatay, in the process of modernization and industrialization.

4. Labour-Employment structure

4.1. Employment rate

Employment rate is a general indicator of the percentage of the population in the labour force. It is determined by number of people aged 15 and above involving in the labour force. The rate of employment in Hanoi in 2009 is presented in the following table:

Table 9: Hanoi’s population aged 15 and above by economic status,

gender, rural/ urban areas (people), 2009

(Source: Vietnam Population and Housing Census in 1999 and 2009 )

The unemployment rate of Hanoi’s population aged 15 and above stands at 2.17 % (4,967,928 people), of which males account for 57.3% and females 42.7%. , The unemployment rate in rural and urban areas is 50.08 and 49.92% respectively. In terms of gender, male unemployment rate urban and rural areas is 55.7%, and 58.9% respectively of the overall unemployed population.

Those not involved in any economic-related activities account for 31.3% of the population aged 15 and above. The rate in urban areas is higher than in rural areas, with higher female unemployment rate than male unemployment rate. (56.4% to 43.6%). In both urban and rural areas, the number females not involved in economic activities rate is always higher than that of males (55.7% to 44.3% in rural areas and 57.05% to 52.95% in urban areas).

4.2. Employment by occupations.

Analysis of employment structure by occupations indicates the diverse forms of employment, which facilitates the understanding of corresponding qualifications to each form of employment. The following table shows Hanoi’s employment structure by occupations in 2009:

Chart 10: Hanoi’s working population aged 15 and above

by occupations, rural/urban areas (people)

(Source: Vietnam Population and Housing Census in 1999 and 2009)

Table 10 shows the employment structure in population aged 15 and above in Hanoi. In urban areas, there is a high percentage of people working in such areas as leadership (79.4%), high-tech (80.7%), mid-tech (53.8%), private service, security and sales (55.5%), while in rural areas agriculture, forestry and fisheries (81.2%), handicraft and other related areas (76.8%), technical and equipment-related area (51.4%) and other simple jobs (91%).

The above analysis reveals a big gap in professional qualifications between rural and urban areas in Hanoi, with 81% of the labour force involved in high-tech industries in urban areas and 91% in simple careers in rural areas. Moreover, political power structure is also clearly reflected. Most the leadership is in urban areas (79.4%), which is justified by Hanoi being the capital of Vietnam, the political, social economic and scientific center of Vietnam with various leading colleges, universities and other education institutions.

4.3. Employment structure by economic sectors

Employment structure analysis by economic sectors shows economic structure shift to modernization and industrialization.

Table 11: Employment structure in their working age by economic sectors (%)

(Source: Vietnam Population and Housing Census in 1999 and 2009)

From the above data, in Red River Delta the employment rate by economic sectors is as follows: agriculture (45.8%), industry and construction (26.7%) and service (27.6%). Located in the Red River Delta, Hanoi is undergoing an economic structure shift to industrialization and modernization, which is proceeding at much faster pace than in other parts of the country. Of the population of the labour age, 31% are involved in agriculture sector, 41% in service sector, 1.48 times higher than in Red River Delta and 1.54 times higher than nationwide average. Meanwhile, Hanoi’s employment in agriculture is only 68.5% of that of the Red River Delta area and 60.5% of the nationwide average.

5. Population structure by age groups: dependent population and aging population .

5.1. Proportion of dependent population

Population structure by age groups is used to reckon dependence index, an indicator of pressure on working population. The index shows the effect of the fertility rate and mortality rate on the age structure of the labour force. Dependence index also shows the percentage of the population either under 15 or above 65 years of age per every 100 people at the labour age (15-64)

According to Vietnam 2009 Population and Housing Census, the population under 15 years and above 65 of age accounts for 22.1% and 7.1% of Hanoi’s population. The total dependent population rate in Hanoi is 41.3% (The Central Population and Housing Census Steering Committee, 2010b).

The data of Vietnam 2009 Population and Housing Census also reveal that the nationwide working population (aged 15-64) makes up 68%, independent population accounts for 32%. Hanoi’s independent population rate is lower than the nationwide average (29% against 32%). Vietnam is in the period of “golden population structure” when one dependant is supported by 2 working people. In other words, the proportion of working population is twice as high as that of the independent population. It is important to take full advantage of this golden period to promote socio-economic development of Hanoi. According to population specialists, the “golden population structure” period of Vietnam will last 39 - 45 years (Nguyen Dinh Cu, 2010)

However, the “golden population structure” period will not exert positive influence on Hanoi’s development unless more appropriate policies are introduced. The “golden population structure” is characterized by an abundant labour force, low dependent population proportion, which are advantageous for rapid economic development. However, the number and growth of working population also exerts enormous pressures concerning employment, vocational and technical training for labourers. Hence, policy makers of the Government and Hanoi should adopt appropriate policies on socio-economic development, especially social welfare for the old, gender equality, employment generation.

5.2. Population aging

In 2009, the number of old-age people (aged 60 and above) occupied 8.9% of the total population. However, the aging rate of the population was faster than its growth rate. In the period 1979-2009, the population grew 1.6 times but the number of old-age people increased 2.08 times.

In 2007, Hanoi and Hatay were two of the cities/provinces with the highest proportion of old-age people (over 10% of the total population). In other words, before the 2009 Population and Housing was conducted, the population of expanded Hanoi were already “aging society” in comparison with other parts of the country. The following table shows the proportion old-age population in Hanoi:

Chart 12: Old-age population in Hanoi by gender and age groups, 1^st April 2008 (%)

(Source: data collected in 2008)

Table 12 shows that by the 1^st April 2008, old-age people made up 12.3% of Hanoi’s population, 4.1% higher than the nationwide average of 12.3%. Aged females outnumbered males (13.7% against 10.8%). This imbalance is even more evident in rural areas (13.8% against 9.7%)

One important criterion of aging population analysis is the aging index which is measured by the proportion of the population aged 60 and above to the population aged under 15. According to the 2009 Population and Housing Census, Hanoi’s aging index was 45.1% and lower than that of Red River Delta (48.5%) but higher than the nationwide aging index (35.7%). Particularly, Hanoi’s aging index was much higher than Ho Chi Minh City’s (34.1%) (The Central Population and Housing Census Steering Committee, 2009)

The population aging trend requires that Hanoi introduce more on social welfare programs for the elderly and policies appropriate for each age group and the rural areas. This is currently considered a population challenge for Hanoi in its development process.

6. Suggestions

From the above analyses of Hanoi’s population structure, it is suggested that

Firstly, Hanoi’s population growth is currently affected by migration, resulting in higher population density in a foreseeable future.

Secondly, there is a big difference in education level, technical qualifications between rural and urban areas. This proves not only the difference in education opportunities but also intellectual barriers in rural areas. Appropriate policies should be introduced by Hanoi education authorities to alleviate urban-rural education inequity.

Thirdly, the difference in education level, technical qualifications contribute to human resource imbalance between rural and urban areas. Hence, Hanoi’s socio-economic development policies should be better attend to in terms of adjusting employment structure in different urban and rural districts.

Fourthly, Vietnam in general and Hanoi in particular are entering the “golden population structure” period, which is an opportunity as well as a challenge for Hanoi administrators as how to take full advantage of the opportunity to create positive effect on socio-economic development.

On the basis of the typical features of Hanoi’s population structure in modernization and industrialization, it is recommended that

· Study the quality and scale of Hanoi’s population, identify population growth and population quality in different districts and localities.

· On the basis of such a study, make human resource development and training plan appropriate for each area, meeting the demands of the industrialization and modernization process, take full advantage of the “golden population structure” period to promote socio-economic development.

· Introduce social policies for old-age people, especially those in rural areas, elderly lonely women, introduce social welfare and train caring staff for the elderly.

· Study the natural population changes, particularly the mechanical population growth due to incoming migration to Hanoi. This will help effectively control fertility rate (which is still very high in some former Hatay districts and communes) and working migration to the capital.

References

1. The Central Population and Housing Steering Committee(2010): Vietnam 2009 Population and Housing - Key results, Hanoi 6/2010

2. The Central Population and Housing Steering Committee(2010): Vietnam 2009 Population and Housing - Some main criteria, Hanoi 6/2010

3. The Central Population and Housing Steering Committee(2010): Vietnam 2009 Population and Housing at 00:00 1^st, April 2009- Some sample expanded results, Hanoi 12/2009

4. Nguyen Dinh Cu-Ha Anh Tuan (2010): Population structure changes and forecast on Vietnam’s golden population period, Population and Development Magazine, No 5 (110)

5. General Statistics Office (2009): A survey on population, labour and family planning 1^st April 2008: Some major results; Hanoi

6. General Statistics Office (1999): General Population and Housing in Vietnam 1999- General survey results. Statistics Publisher, Hanoi 8/2001

7. National Assembly’s Committee for Social Affairs (2005): Report on the results of the rural-to-urban migration policies.

8. Hoang Ba Thinh (2009): Current Hanoi’s population structure; Science research paper - Hanoi Department of Science and Technology- The US Embassy, Hanoi 11/2009

9. Hoang Ba Thinh (2009): Aging population and Social Policy for Elderly people in Vietnam; Seoul National University, Korea, 3-5/12/2009

10. National Centre for Social Sciences and Humanities (2001): National Human Development Report 2001. National Political Publishing house, Hanoi.

11. Phan Dương (2009): Lands for universities in Hanoi: - Too limited http://vneconomy.vn

According to the data, only 0.67% of Hanoi’s population aged 15 and above is working in agricultural sector. This number is considered low in comparison with 2.5 million people in Hanoi live on agriculture. This may be relateed to the selection of census sample, nationwide data which shows only 8.8 million out of 47.68 million (18.5%) people aged 15 and above are employed in agriculture, forestry and fisheryies. Meanwhile, 70% of rural population (69.45 million people) lives on agriculture.